雷泽奎 涂涛涛 李霞：资本替代劳动会增加农业中的化肥投入吗？基于中国省际面板数据的分析

Zekui Lei, Taotao Tu*, Xia Li (2022). Will the substitution of capital for labor increase the use of chemical fertilizer in agriculture? Analysis based on provincial panel data in China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. forthcoming

全文链接：

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23628-y

PDF链接（点击文末“阅读原文”可查看原文）：

https://rdcu.be/cXY4H

摘要：当前，中国农业要素投入结构发生重大转变，这必然会影响农业化肥投入。然而，关于资本和劳动投入对化肥投入的影响的相关研究并没有形成一致结论。本文利用有向无环图(DAGs)分析了资本和劳动投入对化肥使用的影响。利用省际面板数据，采用动态面板系统GMM方法，本文探究了要素替代弹性在农业资本和劳动投入变化影响化肥投入过程中的作用机制。结果表明，农业劳动和资本投入与化肥投入正相关。在资本和劳动力投入影响化肥投入的过程中，要素替代弹性具有负向调节作用。1996-2018年期间资本投入增长率大于劳动力投入减少率，资本替代劳动的趋势明显。因此，资本投入的增长及其对劳动力的替代是化肥投入增长的主要驱动因素。同时，1996-2018年期间化肥-资本替代弹性下降，从而强化了资本投入增长所诱发的化肥投入增长效应。为了减少化肥投入增加对农业造成的污染，扭转化肥-资本替代弹性持续下降的趋势至关重要。

Abstract: Major changes have taken place in the agricultural factor input structure in China, which will inevitably affect fertilizer input in agriculture. However, there is no consistent conclusion about the impact of capital and labor input on chemical fertilizer input. This paper employed directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to clarify the influence of capital-labor input structure on the use of chemical fertilizer. Using inter-provincial panel data, the dynamic panel system GMM method was adopted to examine the mechanism of factor substitution elasticity in determining the impact of agricultural capital-labor input on chemical fertilizer input. The results showed that agricultural labor and capital input are positively correlated with chemical fertilizer input. In the process of capital and labor input affecting fertilizer input, the elasticity of factor substitution plays a negative moderating role. From 1996 to 2018, the trend of capital replacing labor was evident, and the increase ratio of capital input was greater than the decrease ratio of labor input. Therefore, an increase in capital input and its substitution for labor is the main driver of the increase in fertilizer input. At the same time, the elasticity of fertilizer-capital substitution declined during the period 1996–2018, thereby reinforcing the increase in fertilizer input caused by the increase in capital input. In order to reduce agricultural pollution caused by the increase in chemical fertilizer input, it is crucial to reverse the declining trend in the elasticity of fertilizer capital substitution.

转自：“三农学术”微信公众号

如有侵权，请联系本站删除！