Puneet Vatsa 马旺林 毛慧 张晓恒：极端天气事件与农户信贷需求

Puneet Vatsa, Wanglin Ma, Hui Mao and Xiaoheng Zhang (2023). Extreme Weather Events and Credit Demand. Chapter 20 in “Managing Risk in Agriculture: A Development Perspective” (edited by Ashok K. Mishra, Subal Kumbhakar, Gudbrand Lien).

全文链接:

https://doi.org/10.1079/9781800622289.0020

书籍全文链接：

https://www.cabidigitallibrary.org/doi/book/10.1079/9781800622289.0000

摘要：人为气候变化增加了极端天气事件的强度和频率。农业部门尤其脆弱，小农往往缺乏应对天气冲击的资金。因此，为农民提供信贷渠道对于建设农村社区的金融弹性至关重要。因此，本章采用双栏模型分析了中国陕西省六个县的极端天气事件与苹果农户信贷需求之间的联系。结果表明，极端天气事件与农户借贷可能性和借贷金额的增加有关。然而，对不同类别天气事件的信贷需求是不同的。干旱不会影响信贷需求，但霜冻与农户借贷金额和借贷可能性增加有关。我们发现六个县的信贷需求存在差异。此外，年长的农户比年轻的农户借贷可能性更小，而自我报告的健康状况与借贷可能性呈负相关——认为自己健康的农户比认为自己不健康的农户借贷可能性更小。

Abstract：Anthropogenic climate change has increased the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. The agricultural sector is especially vulnerable, with smallholder farmers often lacking the wherewithal to cope with weather shocks. Thus, providing farmers access to credit is vital for building financial resilience in rural communities. Accordingly, this chapter analyzes the linkages between extreme weather events and apple farmers’ demand for credit in six counties of China’s Shaanxi province using a double-hurdle model. The results show that extreme weather events are associated with both an increase in the likelihood of farmers borrowing and in the amount borrowed. However, the demand for credit in response to different categories of weather events varies. Droughts do not affect credit demand, but frosts are associated with a rise in the amount borrowed and the probability of farmers borrowing. We find differences in credit demand across the six counties. Furthermore, older farmers are less likely to borrow than younger ones, and self-reported health status is negatively associated with the likelihood of borrowing – farmers who perceive themselves as healthy are less likely to borrow than those who do not.

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