来源：ECONOMICS RULES
经济学研究人的决策以及社会运行的基本逻辑，过去几百年不管是对个人、企业还是政府的决策都产生了巨大的影响。经济学家凯恩斯曾说：“经济学家和政治学家的思想，不论它们正确与否，都比一般所想象的更有力量。的确，世界就是由它们统治的。实用主义者自认为他们不受任何学理的影响，其实他们经常是某个已故经济学家的俘虏。自以为是的当权者，他们的狂乱想法不过是从若干年前某个拙劣的作家的作品中提炼出来的。我确信，和思想的逐步侵蚀相比，既得利益的力量被过分夸大了。……或迟或早，不论好坏，危险的东西不是既得利益，而是思想。”
以下是著名的学术期刊《美国经济评论》杂志评选的过去100年在该杂志上发表的最具影响力的20篇经济学论文。排名不分先后，每篇文章附有下载链接。
1 "The Use of Knowledge In Society"
Publication date: 1945
Authors: Friedrich Hayek
Conclusion: Prices must be the focal point of all economic decisions.
Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/35.4.519-530.pdf
Source: AER
2 "The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment"
Publication date: 1958
Authors: Franco Modigliani and Merton Miller
Conclusion: A firm’s total market value is invariant to its borrowing behavior.
Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/48.3.261-297.pdf
Source: AER
3 "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?"
Publication date: 1981
Authors: Robert Shiller
Conclusion: Stock price volatility is far too great to be simply attributed to new information about future real dividends.
Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/71.3.421-436.pdf
Source: AER
4 "An Almost Ideal Demand System"
Publication date: 1980
Authors: Angus S. Deaton and John Muellbauer
Conclusion: You can predict household demand based on the relative costs of "subsistence" versus "bliss".
Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/70.3.312-326.pdf
Source: AER
5 "Uncertainty and the Welfare Economics of Medical Care"
Publication date: 1963
Authors: Kenneth J. Arrow
Conclusion: The health care market is too plagued by moral hazard and consumers' lack of information to be viewed as free.
Link: https://assets.aeaweb.org/assetserver/files/ 9442.pdf
Source: AER
6 "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs"
Publication date: 1973
Authors: Robert E. Lucas, Jr.
Conclusion: You can model what happens when consumers make decisions without knowing whether a price change also signals a relative price change.
Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/63.3.326-334.pdf
Source: AER
7 "The Role of Monetary Policy"
Publication date: 1968
Authors: Milton Friedman
Conclusion: There exists a "natural rate of unemployment," or the number of jobs a given economy can support.
Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/58.1.1-17.pdf
Source: AER
8 "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity"
Publication date: 1965
Authors: Avinash K. Dixit and Joseph E. Stiglitz
Conclusion: Product variety can influence the way the market dictates resource allocation. The market considers profits, while a social optimum takes into account the consumer's surplus.
Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/67.3.297-308.pdf
Source: AER
9 "A Theory of Production"
Publication date: 1928
Authors: Charles W. Cobb and Paul H. Douglas
Conclusion: You can figure out how much production a given amount of capital and labor can yield.
Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/18.1.139-165.pdf
Source: AER
10 "Optimal Taxation and Public Production"
Publication date: 1971
Authors: Peter A. Diamond and James A. Mirrlees
Conclusion: It is possible to set taxes that minimize distortions and disincentives, and eliminate production inefficiencies.
Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/61.1.8-27.pdf
Source: AER
11 "Capital Theory and Investment Behavior"
Publication date: 1963
Authors: Dale W. Jorgenson
Conclusion: Cost-of-finance (interest rates and equity yields) and taxes should drive investment decisions.
Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/35.4.519-530.pdf
Source: AER
12 "Production, Information Costs, and Economic Organization"
Publication date: 1972
Authors: Armen A. Alchian and Harold Demsetz
Conclusion: Firms must continuously measure productivity. The market alone is not enough to generate peak output — strong management is also required, and firm's will benefit from devoting resources to it.
Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/62.5.777-795.pdf
Source: AER
13 "On The Impossibility Of Informationally Efficient Markets"
Publication date: 1980
Authors: Sanford Grossman
Conclusion: In a world of dispersed information, the equilibrium price can itself be a source of information to consumers.
Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/70.3.393-408.pdf
Source: AER
14 "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation and the Pattern of Trade"
Publication date: 1980
Authors: Paul Krugman
Conclusion: Standard comparative cost theory doesn't sufficiently explain trade.
Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/70.5.950-959.pdf
Source: AER
15 "Migration, Unemployment and Development"
Publication date: 1970
Authors: John R. Harris and Michael Todaro
Conclusion: In poor countries, individuals migrate from rural to urban areas.
Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/60.1.126-142.pdf
Source: AER
16 "The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society"
Publication date: 1974
Authors: Anne O. Kreuger
Conclusion: Tariffs are better for countries to enact than import quotas.
Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/64.3.291-303.pdf
Source: AER
17 "Economic Growth and Income Inequality"
Publication date: 1955
Authors: Simon Kuznets
Conclusion: Earlier phases of economic development are characterized by increasing income inequality.
Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/45.1.1-28.pdf
Source: AER
18 "National Debt In A Neoclassical Growth Model"
Publication date: 1965
Authors: Peter A. Diamond
Conclusion: External and internal government debt can potentially reduce capital stock in the long-run.
Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/55.5.1126-1150.pdf
Source: AER
19 "A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas"
Publication date: 1961
Authors: Robert A. Mundell
Conclusion: You can figure out the optimal number of entities for a given currency areas.
Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/51.4.657-665.pdf
Source: AER
20 "The Economic Theory of Agency: The Principal's Problem"
Publication date: 1973
Authors: Stephen A. Ross
Conclusion: There is a way to avoid moral hazard when you're paying people a lot of money.
Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/63.2.134-139.pdf
Source: AER
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