双循环背景下创新韧性对高技术产业发展影响研究
胡甲滨1,俞立平1,2,洪金珠1,2
（1.浙江工商大学 统计与数学学院，浙江 杭州310018；
2.浙江工商大学 统计数据工程技术与应用协同创新中心，浙江 杭州310018）
摘要：高技术产业的发展对双循环战略的实现起到重要影响，而创新韧性是保障高技术产业创新系统在外部环境变迁下“化险为夷”并实现“进化”的关键。本文借助演进韧性及经济韧性的研究理解创新韧性内涵，并基于分析双循环下创新韧性对高技术产业产出（外贸出口、国内需求）理论机制，利用面板回归模型、面板门槛模型实证创新韧性与外贸出口或国内需求间的线性、非线性效应，随后借助BP-人工神经网络进行稳健性检验。研究结果发现：创新韧性对外贸出口的影响呈现负向作用，对国内需求无影响；低水平外贸出口下，创新韧性不利于外贸出口；创新韧性增加，其对外贸出口的负向作用减小；创新韧性正向作用于国内需求需要较大的国内需求；创新韧性正向作用于国内需求需要保持中等创新韧性。
关键词：双循环；高技术产业；创新韧性；外贸出口；国内需求
主要研究结论：
（1）创新韧性对外贸出口的影响呈现负向作用，对国内需求无影响
创新韧性回归结果显示，其对国内需求的影响未通过检验，而对外贸出口则存在负向效应。其在于，国内创新产品与国外相比不具备竞争优势，加之巨大创新沉没成本，使得创新韧性较差的企业更注重短期效益，忽视创新成果质量的提高，或者更加依赖于对外进口，而非自主创新，从而导致外部冲击对外贸出口的影响较大。
面板数据模型结果也显示，创新韧性与国内需求之间关系未通过统计检验，创新韧性与国内需求无关。一方面，双循环背景下，创新韧性主要源自创新系统对中美贸易摩擦、贸易保护主义等外部不确定因素的抵抗力与恢复力，由于我国国内技术能力不足，对外依存度高，外部冲击对外贸出口的影响首当其冲。另一方面，国内需求仍具备强大潜力，产业链完整，应对外部冲击有较大回旋余地，难以引起内需较大变化。
（2）低水平外贸出口下，创新韧性不利于外贸出口
综合外贸出口门槛系数变化看，当外贸出口较小时，创新韧性负向影响外贸出口，随着外贸出口增加，创新韧性对外贸出口的弹性系数增加，影响由负转正。可见，要发挥创新韧性对外贸出口的正向作用，外贸出口要保持在较高水平下。低水平外贸出口下，创新投入减小，难以与国际互通有无、融资困难，创新资源不足，导致企业应对冲击的抵御能力低，创新韧性弱，而韧性弱意味着企业自我效能感低，害怕外部冲击所带来的损失，走“低质低价”道路，难以形成竞争力，又进一步促使外贸出口下降。
（3）创新韧性增加，其对外贸出口的负向作用减小
综合韧性强度门槛系数变化看，随着创新韧性增加，其对外贸出口的负向影响减小。创新韧性增加，产生创新集聚效应以及知识溢出效应，持续不断的增强创新能力，实现更高阶段的创新，极大提升企业的竞争优势，有助于外贸出口发展。但当前我国创新产品与国外相比竞争优势依旧不大，受外部冲击影响较大，创新韧性对外贸出口总体呈现负向影响。
（4）创新韧性对国内需求的影响随着内需增加而由负转正
综合国内需求门槛系数变化可知，创新韧性对国内需求的弹性系数随国内需求增加由负转正，不断增大。双循环背景下，企业技术创新直接面对国际市场，受国际市场不确定性冲击影响，为降低风险，必然要求拥有较大的国际市场作为基础，唯有稳定巨大的国内需求才能支持企业完成创新试错过程，提升应对冲击的抵御能力，进而增强韧性强度。韧性强度增加，能在资源配置优化、创新管理优化、产业结构升级、创新活动开展等方面为高技术产业带来利好，推动创新产品升级，满足国内消费者更加多样化的需求。
（5）创新韧性正向作用于国内需求需要保持中等韧性强度
综合韧性强度门槛系数变化可知，随着韧性增强，其对国内需求的影响先增大后减小，由负向转正向后又变为负向，中等韧性强度下，创新韧性产生较大的正向效应。其在于：创新韧性增强，首先产生更大的集聚效应，为企业持续创新提供足够资源的同时，加强企业间交流协同，产生融合创新，满足消费者更多需求，进一步扩大国内需求；但从另一方面来讲，韧性的不断增强也带来资源的过度集聚，不仅使得创新管理优化、资源配置效应等正向效应无法有效发挥，还会产生拥挤效应，形成创新锁定，反而不利于企业产出高质多样化的产品，对国内需求产生负向作用。
Research on the impact of innovation resilience on the development of high-tech industries under the background of dual cycles
Hu Jiabin1, Yu Liping1,2, Hong Jinzhu1,2
(1. School of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China;
2. Collaborative Innovation Center of Statistical Data Engineering, Technology and Application, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China)
Abstract:At present, China is under the dual effects of internal environmental changes that transform economic construction into high-quality development and external shocks such as epidemics and international trade frustration. The emergence of the dual-cycle strategy has put forward higher requirements for high-tech industry innovation. How to deal with the impact of shocks and stabilize the innovation system of high-tech industries. The resilience research provides a new perspective. The resilience theory emphasizes the optimization of the system′s resistance and balance to external shocks. It studies the impact of innovation resilience on high-tech industries in the context of dual cycles. The influence of development is very important to stable economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss the following aspects: First, there is no relevant research on innovation resilience at this stage. What is innovation resilience? How to measure innovation resilience? Second, what is the impact mechanism of innovation resilience on the output of high-tech industries (foreign trade exports, domestic demand)? What are the characteristics and laws of its influence? Third, under the dual-cycle background, the competition status of enterprises in the international and domestic markets is different, which will inevitably lead to different degrees of impact of innovation resilience on domestic demand and foreign trade exports. Does innovation resilience affect foreign trade demand or domestic demand more?
This article first defines "innovation resilience" on the basis of related research on "resilience" and "economic resilience", that is, the ability of innovation to withstand external shocks and maintain system stability, restore or even evolve to a higher functional state. Second, refer to the core variable method of economic resilience measurement to measure innovation resilience, draw on the research paradigm proposed by Martin in 2019, and select the sales revenue of new products that measure the effects of innovation activities as the core variable. Subsequently, taking the high-tech industry as the research object, analyze the impact mechanism of innovation resilience on the output (foreign trade, domestic demand) of the high-tech industry. In the mechanism of the impact of innovation resilience on foreign trade exports, positive mechanisms include innovation agglomeration effects, knowledge spillover effects, increased levels of R&D expenditures, innovation costs reduction, improved competitive advantages, and optimization of the trade environment. Negative mechanisms include cost accumulation effects and technological competition. Effect, knowledge crowding effect; in the mechanism of the impact of innovation resilience on domestic demand, the positive mechanism includes the input compensation effect, the innovation agglomeration effect, the resource allocation effect, the knowledge accumulation effect, and the optimization of innovation management. The negative mechanism includes: cost accumulation effect, knowledge crowding effect; at the same time, foreign trade exports and domestic demand also have feedback mechanisms for innovation resilience, including feedback enhancement effects and economies of scale.
This paper uses the high-tech industry data to study the linear and non-linear relationship between innovation resilience and high-tech industry output (foreign trade exports, domestic demand) through panel data models and panel threshold models, and uses BP-artificial neural networks to test the robustness. Determine the degree of impact of innovation resilience on foreign trade exports and domestic demand. The results of the study found that: First, the impact of innovation resilience on foreign trade exports is negative, and has no impact on domestic demand; second, under low-level foreign trade exports, innovation resilience is not conducive to foreign trade exports; third, innovation resilience increases, which has no effect on domestic demand. The negative effect of foreign trade exports is reduced; fourth, innovation resilience is positively acting on domestic demand, which requires greater domestic demand; fifth, innovation resilience is positively acting on domestic demand and requires maintaining moderate innovation resilience.
Key words:dual cycle; high-tech industry; innovation resilience; foreign trade export; domestic demand
引用本文：胡甲滨,俞立平,洪金珠.双循环背景下创新韧性对高技术产业发展影响研究[J].科研管理,2023,44(6):51-61.
转自：“科研管理”微信公众号
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