技术进步与高端制造业贸易网络研究
杨文珂1,马钱挺2,何建敏3,苏屹4,赵一成3
（1.南京邮电大学 经济学院，江苏 南京210023；
2.南京农业大学 金融学院，江苏 南京210095；
3.东南大学 经济管理学院，江苏 南京211189；
4.哈尔滨工程大学 经济管理学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨150001）
摘要：本文旨在通过网络分析方法、一般均衡模型及引力模型探索技术进步与高端制造业中间、最终产品出口贸易网络间的内在机制，利用2005—2014年43个国家（地区）的面板数据，基于高维固定效应泊松拟极大似然估计（PPML-HDFE），实证研究发现：首先，全球高端制造业贸易规模呈现出明显的“幂律尾部”特征。其次，全球高端制造业中间、最终产品贸易网络呈现出明显的“核心-边缘”结构，德国、中国和美国在高端制造业中间、最终产品贸易网络中的重要性排名位于前三。更为重要的是，技术进步对高端制造业中间、最终产品出口贸易相对地位有显著的抑制作用，且二者间的关系会受到军事力量的中介作用。此外，技术进步、军事力量对高端制造业贸易网络的影响存在贸易协定签署异质性与经济发展异质性特征。一方面，签订贸易协定下，技术进步对高端制造业中间产品出口贸易相对地位的抑制作用虽会显著增强，军事力量对高端制造业中间产品出口贸易相对地位的负向影响将明显减弱。另一方面，签订贸易协定下，技术进步对高端制造业最终产品出口贸易相对地位的负向影响明显减弱。此外，签订贸易协定对最终产品出口贸易相对地位的影响亦存在显著组间差异。本研究对技术进步与高端制造业贸易关系进行延伸，为促进全球高端制造业出口贸易，优化全球高端制造产业结构与布局，探究其出口贸易相对地位的影响因素方面提供新的观点与机制。
关键词：技术进步；高端制造业；中间产品；最终产品；贸易网络；高维固定效应泊松拟极大似然估计（PPML-HDFE）
第一，与高端制造业最终产品相比，全球对中间产品的需求更容易受到技术进步的影响，但在整个十年中，高端制造业中间产品的贸易规模明显高于最终产品，且规模差距在不断扩大，即贸易结构的转变已初步实现。
第二，全球高端制造业中间产品、最终产品贸易网络呈现出明显的“核心-边缘”结构，尚未实现区域贸易均衡发展。
第三，在这十年中，全球贸易联系与高端制造业的商业交易日益密切。在这种情况下，全球高端制造业中间产品贸易的聚集系数高于最终产品贸易，表现出较好的聚集性特征，但最终产品比中间产品贸易表现出更高的相关性特征，即中间、最终产品贸易网络均具有显著的“小世界网络”特征。在中间、最终产品贸易网络的重要性的方面，德国、中国及美国在中间、最终产品贸易网络的重要性中排名前三。
第四，技术进步对高端制造业中间、最终产品出口贸易相对地位的影响均具有显著抑制作用，即一国（地区）的技术进步的总体水平与其中间、最终产品出口贸易相对地位会存在背离的趋势。其中，二者间的关系会受到军事力量的中介作用。
第五，技术进步、军事力量对高端制造业贸易网络的影响存在显著的贸易协定签署异质性与经济发展异质性特征。一方面，签订贸易协定下，技术进步对高端制造业中间产品出口贸易相对地位的抑制作用明显增强，但在签订贸易协定下，军事力量对高端制造业中间产品出口贸易相对地位的负向影响将明显减弱。另一方面，签订贸易协定下，技术进步对高端制造业最终产品出口贸易相对地位的负向影响明显减弱。签订贸易协定对最终产品出口贸易相对地位的影响亦存在显著组间差异。
Research on the relationship between technological progress and global advanced manufacturing trade network
Yang Wenke1, Ma Qianting2, He Jianmin3, Su Yi4, Zhao Yicheng3
(1.School of Economics, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China;
2.School of Finance, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, China;
3.School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, Jiangsu, China;
4.School of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, Heilongjiang, China)
Abstract:Clarifying the trade network distribution of the intermediate products and final products of the global advanced manufacturing and its dynamic evolution process is beneficial to understanding and breaking trade shackles. This research aims to fill this gap and investigate the interdependency among technological progress, military strength and global advanced manufacturing trade network by using the global data of 43 countries (regions) obtained through network analysis from 2005-2014, a general equilibrium model, gravity models and the PPML-HDFE method.
In the light of empirical research, we can obtain the following results. First, the trade scale of intermediate products is significantly higher than final products in the whole decade, and the global trade in advanced manufacturing shows obvious power law tail characteristics. Then, the global intermediate products trade network of the global advanced manufacturing appears to have manifest core-periphery structures, and so have the final products trade network. In addition, DEU, CHN and USA rank TOP 3 in the importance of intermediate products trade networks, and so do DEU, CHN and ESP in final products trade networks. Furthermore, we also find that the influences of technological progress on the relative position of intermediate products and final products export in advanced manufacturing are significant negative, which is not in the traditional sense and means that the tendency of a country′s(region′s) technological progress is opposite to its relative position of export. Meanwhile, the relationship between technological progress and export trade is mediated by military strength.
Moreover, the influences of technological progress and military strength on the relative position of advanced manufacturing have heterogeneous characteristics of trade agreement signing and economic development. On the one hand, signing trade agreements between countries(regions) can significantly strengthen the negative effect of technological progress on the relative position of export trade of intermediate products of advanced manufacturing, however it may relieve the destructive effect of military strength on that of intermediate products and final products. Besides, signing trade agreements between countries(regions) can significantly weaken the negative effect of technological progress on the relative position of final products export. On the other hand, the more developed the countries(regions) are, the less likely they are to break the existing global pattern of export trade of advanced manufacturing. Much worse, the "crowding out effect" on the development of intermediate products export in advanced manufacturing may happen when these advantage countries(regions) blindly pursue technological progress.
This research extends the mechanism between technological progress and trade network of advanced manufacturing, and provides a new viewpoint for improving the structure and layout of the global advanced manufacturing and exploring its influencing factors. Above all, this paper reckons that the government ought to focus on the whole cycle of inter-regional trade of advanced manufacturing. Specifically, the periphery region should strengthen the regional trade links with sub-core regions and core regions, and further the trade cooperation of advanced manufacturing within the region to realize the "three cycles" of inter-region trade of advanced manufacturing, namely "the cycle between the core regions and sub-core regions", "the cycle between core regions", and "the cycle between the periphery regions and sub-core regions".
Key words:technological progress; advanced manufacturing; intermediate product; final product; trade network; PPML-HDFE method
引用本文：杨文珂,马钱挺,何建敏,等.技术进步与高端制造业贸易网络研究[J].科研管理,2023,44(7):50-59.
转自：“科研管理”微信公众号
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