碳交易政策、研发创新与污染性企业碳绩效
马茜1，任晓松2,张红兵2，赵国浩1
（1.山西财经大学工商管理学院，山西 太原030031；
2.山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院，山西 太原030031）
摘要：文章以中国上市企业数据为研究样本，首先采用三重差分法，总体评估碳交易政策对污染性企业碳绩效的影响；然后通过中介效应模型，检验研发创新的中介效应并进行企业规模异质性下中介效应的差异分析；最后利用被调节的中介模型挖掘信息披露对研发创新中介效应的调节作用，利用多重中介效应模型考量遵循成本压力和研发创新动力对污染性企业碳绩效的综合影响。结果显示：碳交易政策能够提升污染性企业碳绩效，研发创新起到了部分中介作用。相对于大规模企业，研发创新的中介效应能够在小规模企业完整显现，且碳绩效提升效果更优。进一步机制讨论发现，信息披露能够正向调节研发创新的中介作用，强化碳绩效提升水平；成本压力对研发创新中介效应存在负向遮掩，其综合作用弱化了碳绩效的提升效果，意味着碳交易政策“波特假说”尚处于“遵循成本”阶段。这些发现对助力全球低碳转型和后疫情时代绿色复苏具有重要理论价值与现实意义。
关键词：碳交易政策；研发创新；污染性企业碳绩效；三重差分法；碳达峰碳中和
主要研究结论：本文基于2010—2018年中国上市公司数据，实证检验了碳交易政策对污染性企业碳绩效的影响，以及研发创新在其中扮演的中介作用。主要结论如下：(1)碳交易政策对污染性企业碳绩效具有显著促进作用。(2)研发创新在碳交易政策与污染性企业碳绩效的关系中发挥部分中介作用，且中介效应存在显著异质性。与大规模企业相比，小规模企业通过研发创新提升碳绩效的效果更为明显。(3)在信息披露机制的调节作用下，碳交易政策通过研发创新提升企业碳绩效的中介作用逐渐增强。(4)遵循成本压力与研发创新动力在碳交易政策影响污染性企业碳绩效的关系中发挥多重中介作用，其中成本压力的累计中介作用负向遮掩了研发创新的并行中介作用，使得碳交易政策的波特效应尚未显现，碳绩效提升效果仍处于“遵循成本”阶段。
Carbon trading policy, R&D innovation and carbon performance of polluting enterprises
Ma Qian1, Ren Xiaosong2, Zhang Hongbing2, Zhao Guohao1
(1. School of Business Administration, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030031, Shanxi, China;
2. School of Management Science and Engineering, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030031, Shanxi, China)
Abstract:As an essential governance tool for the implementation of China′s dual carbon target strategy, carbon trading policy is crucial to the green transformation and development of polluting enterprises. Facing the pressure of emission reduction, enterprises actively respond to the situation through many strategies such as R&D innovation, information disclosure and cost control, etc. Whether carbon performance can be effectively improved, its mechanism needs to be explored in depth. This paper took the data of Chinese listed companies from 2010 to 2018 as the research sample. Firstly, the difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD) method was used to assess the impact of carbon trading policies on the carbon performance of polluting enterprises in general. Then, the mediating effect of R&D innovation was tested by the mediating effect model, and the difference of mediating effect under the heterogeneity of firm size was analyzed. Finally, the moderated mediating model was used to explore the moderating effect of information disclosure on the mediating effect of R&D innovation. The multiple mediating effect model was used to consider the comprehensive impact of compliance cost pressure and R&D innovation motivation on the carbon performance of polluting enterprises.
The main conclusions we have obtained from this study are as follows: (1) Carbon trading policy has a significant effect on carbon performance of polluting enterprises, and the findings remain valid through a series of methods such as common trend test, PSM-DDD, and replacement time window for robustness. (2) R&D innovation plays a partial mediating role in the relationship between carbon trading policy and carbon performance of polluting enterprises, and there is significant heterogeneity in the mediating effect. Compared with large-scale enterprises, the effect of R&D innovation on carbon performance of small-scale enterprises is more obvious. (3) Under the moderating effect of information disclosure, the mediating effect of carbon trading policy to enhance the carbon performance of polluting enterprises through R&D and innovation gradually increases. (4) Cost compliance pressure and R&D innovation motivation play multiple mediating roles in the relationship between carbon trading policy and carbon performance of polluting enterprises, in which the cumulative mediating role of cost pressure negatively overshadows the parallel mediating role of R&D innovation, so that the Porter effect of carbon trading policy has not yet appeared. And, the effect of carbon performance improvement is still in the stage of "cost compliance".
The possible marginal contributions of this paper are as follows: (1) In the research design, carbon trading policy, R&D innovation and carbon performance of polluting enterprises are incorporated in the same analytical framework, focusing on the impact of carbon trading policy on carbon performance of polluting enterprises, adding new empirical evidence to the micro mechanism of carbon trading policy. (2) In terms of mechanism analysis, the moderated mediating model and multiple mediating model are innovatively introduced to explore the moderated mediating effect and serial mediating effect that may exist between carbon trading policy and carbon performance of polluting enterprises, broadening the micro channels for carbon trading to exert institutional dividends. (3) On the theoretical boundary, the Porter hypothesis is subdivided into the stage of cost pressure and innovation motivation. The impact of the combined effect of cost pressure and innovation motivation on the carbon performance of enterprises is considered comprehensively, to clarify the realization context of the Porter hypothesis on carbon trading policy and add new theoretical literature on whether the Porter hypothesis is valid and the conditions of its action.
Key words:carbon trading policy; research and development innovation; carbon performance of polluting enterprise; difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD) method; carbon peak and carbon neutrality
引用本文：马茜,任晓松,张红兵,等.碳交易政策、研发创新与污染性企业碳绩效[J].科研管理,2023,44(07):114-123.
转自：“科研管理”微信公众号
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